Seesaw Politics

Now that Republicans have re-taken the House and national political momentum, the idea that either party can establish a long-lasting majority is unlikely. Here are the number of House Republicans every two years, from after the 2004 election to after last week's: 232, 198, 178, and 244. During this six-year span, the conventional wisdom has shifted from Karl Rove's establishment of a permanent Republican majority to Barack Obama's ascendancy and the Republican Party's death to the sweeping rejection of liberal Democrats. So much for all that.

If the shelf life either party has to produce results is two years, neither party is likely to produce results. Recovery from economic catastrophe takes longer than two years, though the Democratic Party and Obama administration certainly deserve responsibility for a rudderless recovery, as do others. While I certainly hope the U.S. economy is exponentially better in 2012, it'll be interesting to see voters' response if it remains where it is today. After dismissing Democrats, do we do the same to Republicans, only to realize that in a two-party system we don't have any other options? Hello, Ralph Nader, Sarah Palin or anarchy?

Despite these wild swings, the national political map looks quite similar to what it did in 2004, albeit with a Democratic president (and hopefully that feature remains): Republicans hold seat after seat through the South and the Plains, while no matter how much enthusiasm they conjure leading up to Election Day, they get wiped out along both coasts. For example, all but one of Massachusetts' Congressional delegation and statewide office holders are Democrats, in spite of the Herald's best effort at electioneering over the past two months. Talk about a place that doesn't waver on principles.

Not surprisingly, David Brooks had the best analysis of last week's election, focusing on the post-industrial Midwest, where Republicans made much deeper inroads than before -- the other big political difference between now and 2004. He incisively captures the paradoxes of Midwestern working-class voters while delivering this knock-out blow: "If America can figure out how to build a decent future for the working-class people in this region, then the U.S. will remain a predominant power. If it can’t, it won’t." This is why the Midwest is the most exciting place to be in the U.S. today.