Martha Coakley's loss last night to Scott Brown in the special Senate election is astounding and yet deserved. Massachusetts' liberalism is overrated, but its Democratic roots aren't: People here care about helping the poorest and disadvantaged, creating a social safety net, having strong policy programs and regulation, and having a strong education system to serve as the base for an economy driven by intellect and innovation. Until last night, all of the state's Congressional delegation had been Democratic since 1997 and both senators have been Democratic since 1979.
The reasons for Coakley's loss are plentiful, but the greatest one is Coakley's inability to tap into this tradition. She ran a campaign that seemed disdainful of campaigning. Her initial strategy assumed that few people would vote in a special election in January that had a super-compressed schedule, so she relied on elected Democrats at all levels of government and people involved in the apparatus -- political and union activists, for example -- to drive everyone they know to the polls. However, this is pure top-down campaigning that relies on the political machine, which the broader public rightfully dislikes. Coakley often went days without having any public appearances and infamously told the Globe she finds shaking people's hand outside in the cold pointless.
Brown, on the other hand, went to campaign events everywhere, no matter how quaint or caricatured, which has been his reputation as a state legislator. People notice whether you care, and it became clear in this race that one candidate cared and the other didn't. Furthermore, since she was talking so little at public events, Coakley didn't explain well what she believes in, how she would represent her constituents' values, and why she would make a good senator. This is actually disappointing because as attorney general, Coakley has been successful. She was one of the first prosecutors to tackle subprime mortgages and lending abuse, which most notably led to a large settlement with Goldman Sachs, and she charged lots of companies with misconduct following the collapse of one of the Big Dig's tunnels.
In her absence, Brown filled that void. Despite Massachusetts Republicans' tendency to be more centrist than their national counterparts, he adhered to the national conservative line, opposing health care reform, climate change and wiser financial regulation, and supporting torture, military tribunals and unsuccessful unilateral international policy. He'll quickly fall in line with the Fox News-McConnell right. However, he was tireless, likable and charming, which obscured this, and he successfully tapped into a broader, very understandable frustration and unease people have about the country's future, which is particularly strong among white people. (Here it's worth noting that Obama's approval ratings among whites are about 40 percent, lower than any president in the past 30 years, and one of Brown's most-played radio ads had many people talking in that thick South Boston-South Shore accent -- the conservative Democrat who most fits this category and is most likely to jump parties.) Everyone deserves to be concerned about their country's future and Coakley didn't allay it.
Most comically, Coakley is still attorney general for the next 20 months, so all Massachusetts Democrats unhappy with federal politics because their Senate majority is no longer filibuster-proof can now see her face every week to remind them why things have gone astray. The politicians who would've been lobbying the Legislature to appoint them attorney general -- a jockeying that was once getting nearly as much coverage as the race itself because Coakley's victory seemed so assured -- are now, I assume, getting ready to run against her in the 2010 primary. And all those annoyed Democrats will be glad to vote her out.
Update: Rick Holmes, an excellent and criminally underrated columnist for my alma mater the MetroWest Daily News, who's also their editorial page editor, has very good analysis on what happened. The column is here.
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